Our research draws on proprietary asset-level intelligence to examine market developments, operational performance and investment opportunities across UK renewable energy.
Why some ageing onshore wind assets make stronger repowering candidates than others.
By 2035, some 7GW of UK onshore wind capacity across 400+ projects will have reached 20 years of operation. Screening 102 sub-12MW assets identifies 29 potential repowering candidates, with four sites emerging where performance, resource and network conditions align particularly well.
With 2.6GW of onshore wind set to roll off the Renewables Obligation scheme next year, uncertainty over its future market design creates fertile ground for investors able to unlock latent value.
In 2027, an initial wave of 2.6GW of onshore wind will exit the Renewables Obligation scheme to operate as merchant plants, while DESNZ considers fundamental changes to the scheme’s market design. A second wave of exits in 2033 includes solar PV assets. Exiting the scheme means losing access to certificates whose sale currently accounts for a substantial share of a generator’s revenue: a median of 41% for onshore wind and 49% for solar PV. Together with the uncertainty over future certificate market rules, this could weigh on asset values as support expires. This shift in project economics could offer acquisition opportunities for investors able to identify and unlock latent value across three investment theses: resilient merchant tail, repowering play, and energy hub optionality.